What happens when a conspiracy theorist’s claims don’t materialise?

During the two weeks between the riots at Capitol Hill and Joe Biden’s inauguration, even the majority of those who had promoted rigged election theories had accepted the inevitable. On January 20th 2021, Joe Biden would be inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States.

But this is a reality that has not been accepted by everyone. A collection of conspiracy theorists online have long been insisting that Joe Biden would never become president, a belief they have continued to promote even after the Capitol attacks and the subsequent certification of Biden by Congress; even after Trump himself acknowledged that there would no longer be four more years. They’ve created an alternate reality full of secret military operations, covert signalling and code words, and their videos and websites have offered an online refuge to a small army of QAnon believers who didn’t want to accept that Biden would become the US’s next Commander-in-Chief.

In turn, these conspiracy theorists have seen their respective online followings flourish as they peddle their theories to anyone willing to tune in. Theories that are, by any measure, ridiculous, illogical and usually incoherent. But in the world of online conspiracies, those attributes are usually of little consequence.

Now, for most conspiracies, there is rarely a climactic moment of truth. Conspiracy theories are often obscure and asinine notions that never accumulate into a specific moment in time where they will be exposed as either true or nonsensical. Claiming that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is secretly an alien space lizard from the future may make for entertaining reading, but it’s unlikely to accumulate into a single moment where the legitimacy of the theory will be – once and for all – tested before the eyes of those willing to believe something so absurd. The same applies to the notion that 5G causes COVID-19, or that the government is controlling our thoughts using vaccinations.

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But this does not apply to these theories about Joe Biden. On January 20th 2021, Biden would either be inaugurated president, or he would not be inaugurated president. This alone sets these conspiracies apart from their ilk. There is a defining moment here. A winner and a loser. A person who got it right, and a person who got it wrong.

Which begs the question, what happens if you have spent a significant amount of time promoting the idea that Biden will never become president, and then he does.

As this point, let’s introduce you to a man named Simon Parkes.

With the exception of his beliefs, the ex-councillor driving instructor from England could not be any more different than what we imagine a conspiracy theorist would look and act like. An all-caps, incoherent and ranting Alex Jones he is certainly most not. In contrast, Simon presents himself with a calm assuredness. Straight talking, with a confidence and unruffled conviction that you would normally associate with a veteran professor exhaustively well versed in his subject matter. If you didn’t actually process the words coming from his mouth, he could very well be lecturing you on the Pythagoras Theorem, or detailing an historical account about the Battle of Little Bighorn.

Simon Parkes.

But then you listen to what he says. Even if we gloss over his claims about his unorthodox past where he claims to be an alien abductee, Simon’s beliefs are by any stretch of the imagination entirely irrational. From Satanic bloodlines to soul readings, from demonic possessions to a protective 5G “bioshield”. (Actually just a cheap USB stick he conveniently sells from his website.) If there is a conspiracy theory out there, Simon probably not only believes it, he’s probably discussed it at length during his regular update videos.

Like many personalities claiming Biden would never step foot in the White House, Simon’s following had surged in the weeks before Biden’s inauguration. And if the value of a conspiracy positively correlates to its utter ludicrousness, Simon has certainly risen to the occasion.

Simon’s more recent notions largely follow the popular QAnon related narrative that Trump is fighting the forces of evil that are deeply embedded everywhere in society, including the US government; forces that comprise of satanic, cannibalistic and paedophilic cohorts who covertly run the country and the world for their own nefarious benefit.

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It perhaps goes without saying that he believes Trump won the 2020 presidential election (with 75% of the vote, he mentioned in an “update” video.) But during January 2021, Simon has also been informing his viewers about a behind-the-scenes secret military operation, headed by President Trump, aimed towards keeping the 45th president in power, though not so secret as to prevent Simon and a rag-tag group of others from detailing it at length from their social media accounts (their sources to which seem supported solely by their respective anonymous insider sources.)

During his more recent videos directly before Biden’s inauguration, Simon has exhaustively detailed what his followers should expect to see. The week preceding Biden’s inauguration would be accompanied by large scale blackouts in the US and the UK as the “good guys” move into position in a conspiratorial game of real life chess (a claim that resulted in numerous believers actually sending texts to loved ones urging them to “gas up” their cars). He had claimed Trump had signed the Insurrection Act days before the inauguration. He had also claimed in the hours preceded the inauguration, both mainstream media and social media will go “offline”, and Trump will communicate with people using the Emergency Broadcast System (it’s actually now the Emergency Alert System.)

He goes on. The military operations would initiate when General Hyten (Vice Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff) used the code word “Castle Rock” (after previously claiming it would initiate based on the frequency of Mike Pompeo’s tweets.) If media outlets do show the Biden inauguration (Simon says he doesn’t believe it will “get that far”) then it will most likely be the result of some CGI magic. And when Biden does attempt to enter the White House, he will be refused entry, and most likely arrested.

And still Simon goes on. TV sets around the globe will only be able to show one channel, or will redirect to the same broadcast, and will feature military tribunals where “treasonous” Deep State proponents will finally get their comeuppance on a nationally televised legal stage. TVs will broadcast testimony after testimony, as well as copious evidence showing that not only did Trump win the election, but his political opponents are largely comprised of satanic criminals.

We can’t fault the ambiguity. But as we write this now with the benefit of hindsight, the accuracy of Simon’s claims is another matter altogether.

Switching back to real life, and Biden’s inauguration went relatively normally, with the obvious exceptions of no live audience and the heightened security presence. There were no blackouts. Social media is still live. So is mainstream media. No one used the emergency broadcast system. The General Hyten Telegram account that attracted hundreds of thousands of followers was denounced as a fake by his spokesperson. The Insurrection Act remained unsigned. Biden was inaugurated President, and then – keeping with tradition – entered the White House without incident. And there have been no TV tribunals, no live streamed testimony, not even a single relevant arrest.

That is the reality.

But it’s a reality that Simon hasn’t given much meaningful airtime to since the inauguration. In a subsequent joint video with fellow conspiracy theorist Charlie Ward, Simon glosses over that conspicuous lacking of substance to his conspiracies, instead parroting vague notions of “it’s not happening on my timeline”, briefly claiming that “something went wrong”, rambling about a lost nuclear weapon, peddling more baseless claims that the inauguration wasn’t legitimate and promoting yet another future date for these “exciting times” to materialise; March 4th. That’s the original US inauguration date, and when Trump apparently will finally be inaugurated as the 19th president of the United States (no time to go into that entirely separate and asinine conspiracy here.) The goalposts have moved once again. The conspiracy can has been kicked further down the perpetual road of farce.

If we can offer our own prediction, the same kicking of the can will once again occur on March 4th.

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It’s worth noting that during that same video, Charlie Ward exclaimed that he had received the video of the Biden inauguration many hours before it was broadcast live to the world. A perfect moment – one would think – for Ward to share the video publicly in an ultimate moment of vindication against his disbelievers. Only, of course, he didn’t share it publicly. Once again, we’re expecting to take their word at face value.

All of this leads us to offer a single piece of advice. Those who went all in on Simon’s claims need to take a step back, and process an uncomfortable reality; not a single extraordinary claim that Simon has made since the Capitol riots has come to fruition. Not a single one. Whatever particular inflictions Simon and his ilk suffer from is not our concern, but it might be time to leave this particular train as it progresses further down the rabbit hole.

So what do conspiracy theorists do when their claims fail to come to fruition? Well in Simon’s case at least, they continue as normal. The past transgressions and failed assertions are glossed over, explained away and soon forgotten, and just like a soap opera, they deflect with new twists, new turns and new claims to keep people hooked to the ever evolving and increasingly elaborate plot. That defining moment of redemption and victory is always kept at arm’s length; always around the corner. Forever just out of grasp.

And just like a soap opera, there is no end. As long as there are people still willing to tune in, the stories continue unabated.

The unofficial mantra for QAnon is “the Storm is Coming“.

Only it never really seems to ever arrive, does it?